Feb 19, 2026 Utilities Commission

COMMISSION MEETING

[00:00:01]

[SPECIAL MEETING]

[PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE]

DINA.

[ROLL CALL]

SECRETARY PARKIN.

COMMISSIONER MCGUIRE IS ABSENT TODAY.

COMMISSIONER AUSTIN.

THANK YOU.

WE HAVE A QUORUM.

THANK YOU.

UH, FOR THE RECORD, VICE PRESIDENT CORDERO IS EXCUSED FROM THE LAST MEETING, FEBRUARY 5TH, BOARD MEETING AND COMMISSIONER MCGUIRE IS EXCUSED FROM THE FEBRUARY 19TH MEETING TODAY.

ARE THERE ANY OBJECTIONS FROM THE BOARD? SEEING NONE, WE WILL NOW MOVE ON TO THE CONSENT CALENDAR.

[CONSENT CALENDAR]

MAY I PLEASE HAVE A MOTION TO APPROVE CONSENT CALENDAR ITEMS ONE AND TWO.

MOTION TO APPROVE.

THANK YOU.

AND A SECOND.

THANK YOU.

UH, ANY PUBLIC COMMENTS? ALL THOSE IN FAVOR, PLEASE SAY AYE.

AYE.

ANY OPPOSED? ALL RIGHT, THANK YOU.

MOVING ON TO REGULAR AGENDA ITEM NUMBER

[REGULAR AGENDA]

[3. 26-54348 Recommendation to adopt Request for Proposal UD-26-302 for Emergency Planning Consulting Services, and award a contract to Navigating Preparedness Associates LLC, in a total amount not to exceed $187,500 for a one-year period, and authorize the General Manager to execute all documents necessary to enter into the contract, including any necessary subsequent amendments.       Suggested Action: Approve recommendation. ]

MAY I PLEASE HAVE A THANK YOU.

SECOND.

THANK YOU.

UH, CALL ON SEAN CURTIS FOR THE PRESENTATION.

GOOD MORNING, PRESIDENT SCOTT AND COMMISSIONERS.

THANK YOU FOR THIS OPPORTUNITY TO PRESENT TODAY.

UH, THE ITEM I BRING BEFORE YOU IS RELATED TO EMERGENCY PLANNING CONSULTING SERVICES.

THE ITEMS I'LL BE DISCUSSING IS THE BACKGROUND OF THIS PARTICULAR PROJECT.

I'LL, UH, GO OVER THE SCOPE OF WORK AND THEN, UH, DESCRIBE THE PROCUREMENT, UH, PROCESS THAT WAS UTILIZED TO OBTAIN, UH, CONSULTING SERVICES TO SUPPORT THIS PROJECT, AND THEN CLOSE WITH THE RECOMMENDATION.

TO START, I'D LIKE TO SHOW YOU A, A VERY IMPORTANT STATISTIC.

UM, ACCORDING TO FEMA, ROUGHLY 40% OF SMALL BUSINESSES WILL FAIL FALLING A MAJOR NATURAL DISASTER, SUCH AS THOSE, UH, LIKE HURRICANE KATRINA OR SUPER STORM SANDY.

AS TIME GOES ON, MORE SMALL BUSINESSES WILL TEND TO FAIL, LIKELY DUE TO SUPPLY CHAIN OR KEY STAFFING ISSUES, UH, AS WELL AS THE AVAILABILITY OF, UH, DISASTER ASSISTANCE.

WHILE OUR, OUR AGENCY IS NOT A SMALL BUSINESS, UH, THE FACTS DO REMAIN THE SAME.

AND FOR OUR DEPARTMENT, FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION.

IF WE DID, THAT WOULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS.

OUR EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS PROGRAM RESTS ON THREE IMPORTANT PILLARS, OR IN THIS CASE, PLANS.

THE FIRST PLAN IS OUR EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN.

THE SECOND IS OUR CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLAN OR COOP.

AND THE THIRD IS OUR CRISIS COMMUNICATIONS PLAN.

THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN IS ESSENTIALLY OUR, UH, FIELD PLAYBOOK OF HOW WE'RE GONNA RESPOND TO A WIDE VARIETY OF INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS, UH, SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR IMPORTANT, UH, SERVICES OF, UH, NATURAL GAS, WATER, AND SEWER.

THIS PLAN ASSUMES THAT OUR ORGANIZATION HAS THE CAPABILITY TO RESPOND TO THESE INCIDENTS SUCH AS A WATER CONTAMINATION INCIDENT, A LONG-TERM POWER OUTAGE, OR EVEN A CYBER ATTACK.

THIS PLAN WAS LAST UPDATED, UH, LAST YEAR TO COMPLY WITH THE AMERICA'S WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ACT REGULATION.

THE NEXT PLAN IS OUR CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLAN.

THIS PLAN ENSURES THAT OUR DEPARTMENT HAS THE CAPABILITY TO RESPOND TO AN INCIDENT AND SUPPORT THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN.

IT DETAILS OUR MISSION ESSENTIAL FUNCTIONS, UH, PRIMARILY THOSE THAT ARE, ARE DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN THE SUPPLY OF, UH, AND DISTRIBUTION OF WATER, UH, SEWER AND NATURAL GAS.

IT ALSO OUT, UH, DETAILS THE, THE RESOURCES THAT THEY NEED TO CONTINUE THEIR FUNCTIONS, SUCH AS KEY PERSONNEL, UH, FACILITIES, IT SYSTEMS AND SOFTWARE, AND THE LEGAL AUTHORITY NEEDED TO MAKE DECISIONS DURING A MAJOR CRISIS.

UH, THIS PLAN WAS LAST UPDATED AT THE START OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC.

AND AS SUCH, IT IS, UH, OUTDATED, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE WE HAVE HAD A MERGER DURING THAT TIME, AND IT DOES NOT REFLECT OUR POST MERGER STAFFING OR ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE.

IF THIS PLAN WERE UTILIZED TODAY, WE WOULD BE OPERATING ON OUTDATED PLANS.

[00:05:02]

THIS PLAN IS OUR VOICE TO THE COMMUNITY OF HOW WE WILL, UM, MEET LEGAL NOTIFICATION DEADLINES AND PROVIDE TIMELY AND ACCURATE INFORMATION TO THE PUBLIC.

THE LAST MAJOR UPDATE TO THIS PLAN WAS PERFORMED FOLLOW IN 2024, FOLLOWING THE BOIL WATER INCIDENT.

HOWEVER, IT NEEDS TO BE UPDATED SO THAT IT ALIGNS WITH THE CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLAN AS WELL AS THE ERP AND THE SCENARIOS CONTAINED THEREIN.

UM, SO THE PROJECT THAT WE ARE, ARE LOOKING TO DO IS A MAJOR UP UPDATE TO OUR CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLAN AND CRISIS COMMUNICATIONS PLAN, SO THAT ALL THESE PLANS WORK IN TANDEM TO SUPPORT OUR MISSION TO PROVIDE CLEAN AND SAFE DRINKING WATER, GAS, AND SEWER.

WE WOULD LIKE TO BRING TO BRING A CONSULTANT ON TO SUPPORT THESE EFFORTS, AND THEY WILL EXECUTE MAJOR PLANS SPECIFICALLY FOR OUR COOP AND CRISIS COMMUNICATIONS PLAN FRAMEWORK.

WE WILL EXAMINE OUR ACTIVATION CRITERIA, WHICH ARE THOSE TRIGGERS THAT WILL, UM, NEED TO HIT IN ORDER TO ACTIVATE THESE PLANS AND HOW WE'LL WE'LL NOTIFY ALL EMPLOYEES THAT WE ARE IN THIS EMERGENCY MODE.

WE'LL, UH, VALIDATE AND UPDATE OUR MISSION ESSENTIAL FUNCTIONS.

UH, WE'LL LOOK AT THE RESOURCE AND PERSONNEL NEEDS TO CARRY OUT EACH OF THOSE MISSION ESSENTIAL FUNCTIONS.

WE'LL EXAMINE ALL ALTERNATIVE OPERATING FACILITIES SUCH AS THOSE NEEDED FOR, UH, SCADA OUR OPERATIONAL TECHNOLOGY, AS WELL AS OUR DEPARTMENT OPERATION CENTER.

WE'LL EXAMINE IN LIGHT OF THE NEW, UH, MERGER OUR SUCCESSION AND AUTHORITIES NEEDED TO MAKE CRITICAL DECISIONS, ESPECIALLY IF, IF KEY DECISION MAKERS ARE NOT AVAILABLE AND WHO CAN MAKE THOSE DECISIONS.

AND WE'LL ALSO FOR SPECIFICALLY FOR THE CRISIS COMMUNICATIONS PLAN, EXAMINE THE SCENARIOS IN THE ERP AND COOP AND MAKE SURE THAT WE HAVE, UH, PRE-CREATED TEMPLATES SO THAT WE CAN NOTIFY THE PUBLIC IN A TIMELY MATTER OF, UH, HOW WE'RE HANDLING THE INCIDENT AND CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THEIR NEEDS.

FOLLOWING THE UPDATE OF, OF THOSE TWO PLANS, WE WILL BE CONDUCTING TRAINING FOR ALL RELEVANT STAFF MEMBERS SO THAT THEY UNDERSTAND THE PLAN CONTENTS AND WHAT THEIR PARTICULAR ROLES ARE IN AN INCIDENT.

AND THEN WE'LL CON CONDUCT A TABLETOP EXERCISE FOR THE STAFF SO THAT WE CAN VALIDATE THE CONTENTS OF THE PLAN AND MAKE ANY LAST MINUTE REVISIONS AS NEEDED IN ORDER TO, UH, OBTAIN UH, CONSULTING SERVICES FOR THIS, UH, CRITICAL, THESE CRITICAL UPDATES, WE, UM, ISSUED A REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS BACK IN ON DECEMBER 23RD, 2025.

UM, THE SELECTION PROCESS YIELDED THESE RESULTS.

81 POTENTIAL BID BIDDERS WERE NOTIFIED OF THE OPPORTUNITY TO SUBMIT A PROPOSAL.

11 PROSPECTIVE BIDDERS DOWNLOADED THE DOCUMENT AND A TOTAL OF SEVEN BIDS WERE WERE RECEIVED.

FOLLOWING A COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF THESE SEVEN PROPOSALS, STAFF IS RECOMMENDING THE SELECTION OF NAVIGATING PREPAREDNESS ASSOCIATES, LLC.

THEIR PROPOSAL STOOD OUT AS THE MOST ADVANTAGEOUS TO THE DEPARTMENT BASED ON THEIR RELEVANT PROJECT EXPERIENCE, TEAM QUALIFICATIONS AND COST REASONABLENESS.

WITH THAT STAFF IS RECOMMENDING THAT THE BOARD ADOPT REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS UD 26 302 FOR EMERGENCY PLANNING, CONSULTING SERVICES AND AWARD OF CONTRACT TO NAVIGATING PREPAREDNESS ASSOCIATES LLC IN AN AMOUNT NOT TO EXCEED $187,500 FOR A TOTAL, UH, FOR A ONE YEAR PERIOD, AND AUTHORIZE THE GENERAL MANAGER TO EXECUTE ALL DOCUMENTS NECESSARY TO ENTER INTO THE, INTO THE CONTRACT, INCLUDING ANY NECESSARY SUBSEQUENT.

WITH THAT, I CONCLUDE MY PRESENTATION AND WOULD BE HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS FOR FROM THE BOARD.

THANK YOU, SEAN.

EXCUSE ME.

ARE THERE ANY PUBLIC COMMENTS? ARE THERE ANY COMMISSIONER COMMENTS? YES.

YEAH.

THANK YOU FOR THE PRESENTATION AND, UH, OBVIOUSLY, UM, THIS IS IMPORTANT WORK.

UH, I'M JUST CURIOUS ABOUT THE, UM, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE, WE HAVE PROVISIONS ALREADY IN PLACE.

UM, THE ONE THAT, THAT, THAT NEEDS TO BE UPDATED IS THE ONE IN THE MIDDLE.

GO BACK TO THE SLIDE.

SURE.

CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLAN ARE, ARE WE LOOKING TO UP UPDATE ALL OF THEM OR, OR, OR SPECIFICALLY THAT ONE.

SO THE ERP WAS ALREADY LAST UP, WAS LA UPDATED LAST YEAR FOR THIS PROJECT.

WE'LL BE DOING THE BOTTOM TWO.

CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLAN AND THE CRISIS COMMUNICATION.

CERTAINLY UNDERSTAND THE NEED.

I, I, UM,

[00:10:01]

RIGHT.

UM, 'CAUSE I KNOW THAT THERE WAS, I WOULD, I WOULD BE, BE VERY, THERE WASN'T A PLAN LIKE THIS PRIOR TO COVID IN 2020.

NOBODY SAW THAT COMING, IS THAT CORRECT? AND SO AFTER COVID, WE, WE PUT TOGETHER A PLAN IN RESPONSE, RIGHT? I UNDERSTAND WE WANT TO BE IN FRONT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, UM, BUT I, I'M JUST NOT, NOT COMPLETE, COMPLETELY CONVINCED.

AND, AND PLEASE CONVINCE ME THAT THIS, THIS PIECE IS NECESSARY.

SURE.

SO A PART OF THE, UH, WORK THAT WE DID TO UPDATE OUR EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN, WE LOOKED AT A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS AND IMPACT STORE INFRASTRUCTURE.

UM, SO THAT COULD BE EARTHQUAKE, IT COULD BE, UH, WATER CONTAMINATION, CYBER ATTACK, ET CETERA.

SO LOOKING AT WHAT HAPPENS NATIONALLY OR EVEN INTERNATIONALLY, WE CAN HAVE AN IDEA OF WHAT MIGHT IMPACT OUR OPERATIONS.

THE NICE THING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT POOP IS THAT IT DOESN'T REALLY CARE WHAT CAUSED THE PROBLEM.

WHAT IT REALLY EXAMINES IS DID WE LOSE A KEY FACILITY? HOW ARE WE GOING TO ADDRESS THAT? DID WE LOSE A KEY STAFF MEMBER? HOW ARE WE GOING TO ADDRESS THAT? AND SO THAT'S ONE OF THE NICE THINGS ABOUT COOP IS THAT IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW IT HAPPENED, WE JUST NEED TO KNOW HOW WE'RE GOING TO ADDRESS A PARTICULAR IMPACT TO OUR OPERATIONS.

FOR CRISIS COMMUNICATIONS IN PARTICULAR, IT, IT DOES RELY ON, UM, SOME OF THE ASSUMPTIONS IN THE ERP, SO PROVIDE, CREATING THOSE KEY MESSAGES.

UH, WE'LL CALL IT A, A HOLDING STATEMENT, IF YOU WILL.

SO IF THERE'S A WATER CONTAMINATION, WE ALREADY HAVE, UH, HOLDING STATEMENT IN PLACE.

SO WE JUST MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE TWEAKS AND WE CAN ISSUE THAT VERY QUICKLY.

UM, SO I HOPE, HOPE THAT HELPS ANSWER YOUR QUESTION A BIT.

I I DO AGREE WITH THE CRISIS COMMUNICATION PLAN, UM, EXPERIENCED AND SEE THE NEED.

THAT WAS A RECENT KIND OF SITUATION THAT, THAT, UH, KIND OF THRUST THE KIND OF THRUST THE, THE, UH, DEPARTMENT INTO ACTION.

AND, AND, AND, YOU KNOW, CLEARLY, UM, THAT WAS AN AREA THAT WE NEEDED TO, NEEDED TO, TO IMPROVE UPON.

I THOUGHT THE, THE PLAN WAS, WAS THE EXPERIENCE CREATED A SITUATION WHERE THE PLAN WAS, WAS, WAS AND PUT IN PLACE BASED ON EXPERIENCE.

UH, THERE ARE CONSULTANTS OUT THERE THAT ARE, MAKE OUR OPERATIONS COMMUNICATIONS MORE SEAMLESS.

UH, I'M OKAY WITH THAT.

I GET IT.

BE HERE.

INTERESTED TO HEAR FROM OTHER COMMISSIONERS.

THANK YOU.

THANK YOU, SEAN, FOR THAT.

UM, IS THIS A SITUATION WHERE YOU PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST IN A WAY? ABSOLUTELY.

YES.

OKAY.

UM, I'M ASSUMING, BECAUSE YOU CAN'T PLAN FOR THINGS LIKE COVID, WE NEVER SAW THAT COMING.

AND IN THE CASE OF AN EARTHQUAKE, IT COULD BE A SMALL EARTHQUAKE, IT COULD BE A BIG EARTHQUAKE, IT COULD BE REGIONAL, IT COULD BE HALF OF THE STATE, IT COULD BE, UM, I'M ASSUMING WE'RE, WE'RE PROBABLY AT SOME POINT IF THERE WERE TO BE SOMETHING LIKE THIS, WE'D HAVE TO HOOK INTO METROPOLITAN AND, UM, AND OF COURSE, THE CITY, THERE'S SOME ALIGNMENT THERE, CORRECT? YES.

THESE PLANS ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE CITY'S EMERGENCY OPERATIONS.

OKAY.

I HAD SOME COMMENTS AT THE END, SEAN, THANK YOU.

REAL GOOD.

UH, I TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS, BUT, AND I THINK GINA HIT ON IT.

WHAT, HOW DO WE, OR WHEN DOES THIS PLAN OR PUTTING TOGETHER OF THIS PLAN INCORPORATE WITH THE CITY? YOU KNOW, SO I THINK ANY OF THESE EMERGENCIES, WE WOULD BE LEANING ON DIFFERENT DEPARTMENTS WITHIN THE CITY, DIFFERENT THINGS FOR THAT.

SO HOW DO YOU ENVISION THAT HAPPENING DURING THE CREATION OF THESE PLANS? SO WE WILL BE EVALUATING THE CITY'S EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN, AS WELL AS THE NATURAL HAZARDS MITIGATION PLAN, AND TAKING THOSE CONSIDERATIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS INTO OUR PLAN.

AND THE ERP SPECIFICALLY DETAILS HOW WE WOULD INTEGRATE WITH THE CITY, UH, IN THEIR EMERGENCY OPERATION CENTER.

SO WE WOULD BE SUPPORTING CITYWIDE EFFORTS DURING AN EMERGENCY SITUATION, AND OF COURSE, REQUESTING THEIR SUPPORT AS WELL, UH, WHEN NEEDED.

AND, AND IT GOES FOR METROPOLITAN TOO, OR WHETHER WE WATER RESOURCES.

BUT ON THE CRISIS COMMUNICATION PLAN, DOES THAT PLAN ENVISION IT GOES THROUGH THE MAYOR'S OFFICE, IT COMES THROUGH THE GENERAL MANAGER'S OFFICE.

HOW, HOW ARE THOSE MESSAGES SENT? SO WE'RE NOT SENDING MIXED SIGNALS OUT FROM THE CITY, RIGHT? SO DEPENDING ON THE INCIDENT, IT WOULD EITHER BE OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION OFFICER JOY, OR WE WOULD INTEGRATE WITH THE CITY'S, UH, JOINT INFORMATION CENTER .

AND SO THAT, THAT'S HOW WE WOULD HAVE A UNIFIED

[00:15:01]

SO, UM, I'M OLD ENOUGH TO HAVE NOW RESPONDED TO THE NORTH RIDGE EARTHQUAKE, RESPONDED TO THE COVID PANDEMIC, AND RESPONDED TO THE BOIL WATER NOTICE.

ALBEIT I WAS A VERY YOUNG WHIPPER SNAPPER WHEN I WAS RESPONDING TO THE NORTH RIDGE EARTHQUAKE, BUT I MOBILIZED FROM HUNTINGTON BEACH FIRST TO YORBA LINDA TO THE DEMER FILTRATION PLANT, AND THEN WAS REASSIGNED TO THE JENSEN FILTRATION PLANT IN THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY, AND THEN ON AN ENGINEERING TEAM RESPONDING ON THE NIGHT SHIFT FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS AS WE TRY TO BRING THE PLANT BACK UP.

SO THE COMMENTS I'M ABOUT TO MAKE TO YOU IS ON THE BASIS OF THAT EXPERIENCE, I THINK THE QUESTIONS THAT THE BOARD HAS PRESENTED ARE ALL VERY, VERY GOOD.

AND THEY GO MATERIALLY TO THE ASPECT OF WHAT HAPPENS IN A VERY SPECIFIC INCIDENT AND HOW A CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLAN, CRISIS, COMMUNICATIONS PLAN, EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN, HOW ALL THOSE PLANS WILL WORK.

AT THE SAME TIME, IT IS INCUMBENT UPON US WHEN WE DEVELOP THESE PLANS, THAT WERE NOT DEVELOPING PLANS THAT READ AS SPECIFIC TO A PARTICULAR INCIDENT OR A PARTICULAR EMERGENCY, BUT RATHER THAT WE'RE BLENDING A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT ELEMENTS.

ONE OF THE ELEMENTS THAT WE'RE BLENDING IS FEMA.

AND FEMA HAS INSTITUTED A VERY, VERY WELL UNDERSTOOD INCIDENT COMMAND STRUCTURE.

WE'RE RESPONDING TO AN INCIDENT PERIOD.

UM, TO GIVE YOU A LITTLE BIT OF DETAIL, IF YOU'LL INDULGE ME FOR A MOMENT, IN THE TRAINING FOR THE ICS TRAINING, THE TRAINING FOR THE ICS TRAINING IS HOW DO YOU MOBILIZE AN ENTIRE STRUCTURE TO RESPOND TO AN EMERGENCY THAT HAPPENS TO BE A VERY SMALL PUERTO RICAN FROG THAT MANAGED TO ESCAPE OUTTA THE AIRPORT AND IS NOW POPULATING THE ISLAND OF HAWAII? WHICH IS CRITICAL, BECAUSE NO MATTER HOW SMALL THIS FROG IS, IT IS A DANGER TO THE NATIVE POPULATION OF ANIMALS.

AND SO NOW YOU'LL IMPLEMENT THIS CRISIS COMMUNICATIONS PLAN, INCIDENT COMMAND STRUCTURE, AND RESPOND TO THAT.

EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WILL RESPOND, FINANCE WILL RESPOND, ENGINEERING WILL RESPOND.

EVERYBODY WILL RESPOND BECAUSE A FROG HAS GOTTEN LOOSE ON THE ISLAND OF HAWAII.

THAT'S ALL WELL AND GOOD.

BACK TO THE COMMENTS THAT YOU, THE BOARD MADE HERE TODAY.

IT IS INCUMBENT UPON US TO BALANCE THIS VERY, VERY WELL UNDERSTOOD COMPLEX INCIDENT RESPONSE STRUCTURE FROM FEMA WITH A CRITICAL ELEMENT THAT IS FUNDAMENTAL TO US ALONG TWO DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS.

ONE, WE ARE A DEPARTMENT OF THE CITY.

AND SO IN ANY CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS PLAN AND CRISIS COMMUNICATIONS AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE, WE BALANCE OUR RESPONSIBILITIES.

THE FACT THAT IN A CRISIS WE'RE AN INTEGRATED DEPARTMENT OF THE CITY, WE ARE NOT TECHNICALLY OPERATING ALONE.

AT THE SAME TIME THAT WE'RE DOING THAT, IT IS ALSO INCUMBENT UPON US TO MAKE SURE THAT THESE PLANS ALIGN WITH THE VERY NATURE OF WHO WE ARE AS A UTILITY.

AND THAT IS TO THE VERY NATURE THAT WE'RE LEAN TO BEGIN WITH.

A LOT OF THESE INCIDENT RESPONSES DEPEND ON A CERTAIN ABILITY TO HAVE DEPTH IN YOUR RESPONSE.

AND NATURALLY FOR US, NO MATTER HOW MUCH WE TRY TO ORGANIZE SUCCESSION PLANNING AND SO FORTH LIKE THAT, THE VERY NATURE OF RESPONDING TO THE INCIDENT IS THAT WE'RE VERY LEAN.

OUR ABILITY TO NEGOTIATE THE INCIDENT AT THE MOMENT AND DEAL WITH US BEING VERY LEAN IS ONE OF THE KEY ELEMENTS THAT WE'LL BE WORKING WITH CONSULTANT.

SO WE WILL ENGAGE THE CONSULTANT AND EXPLORE THE VARIETY OF THINGS THAT HAVE HAPPENED TO US IN THE PAST.

BUT I WANT TO ASSURE YOU THAT AS WE GO FORWARD, THE CONSULTANT, WE WILL BE MAKING SURE THAT THE INPUT THAT THEY PROVIDE US AND THE PLANS THAT ARE DEVELOPED ARE NOT INCIDENT SPECIFIC AND GO MORE TO THE MATTER OF HOW WE ARE ABLE TO RESPOND AS BOTH THE CITY DEPARTMENT AND AS A UTILITY HERE IN LONG BEACH.

UH, I HOPE THAT GIVES YOU THE CONTEXT FOR, FOR THE CONSULTING THAT WE'RE GONNA HIRE.

THANK YOU FOR THAT.

OR ANY ADDITIONAL COMMISSIONER.

OKAY.

UH, OKAY.

SO IN THAT CASE, UH, ALL THOSE IN FAVOR SAY AYE.

AYE.

AYE.

ANY OPPOSED? ALL RIGHT, THANK YOU.

MOVING ON, AGENDA ITEM NUMBER FOUR,

[4. 26-54349 Recommendation to authorize the General Manager to execute a contract and all documents necessary, including any necessary subsequent amendments, with Western Audio Visual (A/V), for as-needed audio visual design, integration, and support services, in an annual amount not to exceed $250,000, for an initial one-year term, with the option to renew for two additional one-year periods, at the discretion of the General Manager.       Suggested Action: Approve recommendation. ]

SO, UH, IN ORDER TO HEAR THE PRESENTATION, MAY I PLEASE HAVE A MOTION.

THANK YOU.

UH, CALL ON ALVIN LAMB FOR THE PRESENTATION, MORNING BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS MORNING.

UM, I WOULD BE PRESENTING TO YOU TODAY, UM, THE WESTERN AV.

[00:20:01]

UM, THE, UH, CITY COUNCIL APPROVED THE RFQ UH, T 1 23 1 9 6 ON JULY 16TH, UH, 2024.

UH, THE RFQ WAS ADMINISTERED BY THE TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DEPARTMENT FOR THE AUDIO VISUAL SERVICES, UH, FIRMS. FIRMS THAT, UH, WERE EVALUATED AND BASED ON EXPERIENCE, UH, CAPACITY TECHNICAL APPROACH, UH, COMMUNICATION AND COSTS.

SO THE INFRASTRUCTURE THAT WE ARE LOOKING TO, UH, BRING, UH, WESTERN AV ON BOARD IS TO ADDRESS OUR GAS CAMPUS AUDITORIUM, UH, AUDIO VISUAL, THE, UM, GAS CONFERENCE ROOM IN ROOM OF 5, 5 70, UH, AUTO VISUAL, AS WELL AS THE, UH, BOARD BOARDROOM HERE, THE AUDIO, AUDIO SYSTEM, UM, AND THE ASSEMBLY ROOM DOWNSTAIRS ON THE FIRST FLOOR.

AND ALSO, WE ARE IN A NEED OF A PORTABLE AUDIO SYSTEM FOR EVENTS AND ACTIVITIES THAT, THAT WE WOULD NEED, UH, AND ALSO FOR FUTURE, UH, EOC OPERATION AT THE TREATMENT PLAN.

SO ALL THOSE ARE THE AUDIO VISUALS, UH, UPGRADE THAT WE ARE LOOKING TO BRING WESTERN NAVY ON BOARD TO ADDRESS.

UM, WESTERN NAVY HAS EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE, UH, SUPPORTING UTILITIES DEPARTMENT.

THEY DEMONSTRATED RELIABILITY, UH, DURING THE CRITICAL OF REPAIRS, UH, AND ALSO PROP TWO 18, UH, HEARING AND UPGRADE.

UH, THEY ALSO ENSURED CONTINUITY, UH, FAST RESPONSE TIME, UH, REDUCED MOBILITY COSTS AND SYSTEM COMPATIBILITY IN THE PAST.

WITH THAT, UM, STAFF RECOMMENDS THAT THE BOARD AUTHORIZE THE GENERAL MANAGER TO EXECUTE A CONTRACT IN ALL DOCUMENTS NECESSARY, INCLUDING ANY, UH, SUBSEQUENT AMENDMENTS WITH WESTERN AV, UH, FOR AS NEEDED AUDIO VISUAL DESIGN INTEGRATIONS, UH, AND SUPPORT SERVICES IN AMOUNT NOT TO EXCEED 250,000 FOR AN INITIAL ONE YEAR TERM WITH THE OPTION TO RENEW FOR TWO ADDITIONAL ONE YEAR PERIOD AT THE DISCRETION OF THE GENERAL MATTER THAT ANY QUESTIONS? THANK YOU, ALVIN, ARE THERE ANY PUBLIC COMMENTS? ARE THERE ANY COMMISSIONER COMMENTS? ALL RIGHT, IN THAT CASE, I SHALL CALL THE VOTE.

ALL THOSE IN FAVOR SAY AYE.

AYE.

AYE.

ANY OPPOSED? ALRIGHT, THANK YOU.

THE MOTION PASSES A MEMBER FIVE, RECEIVE

[5. 26-54350 Recommendation to receive and file Water Resources Plan Supply and Demand Forecast.       Suggested Action: Approve recommendation. ]

IN ORDER TO HEAR DEAN'S PRESENTATION.

MAY I PLEASE HAVE A MOTION MOVED IN A SECOND? THANK YOU ON DEAN WANG.

ALRIGHT, GOOD MORNING, PRESIDENT SCOTT AND COMMISSIONERS.

UH, SO I'M VERY EXCITED TO GIVE THIS PRESENTATION TODAY BECAUSE THIS IS, UH, THE WATER RESOURCES PLAN IS REALLY A, A, A GUIDING DOCUMENT FOR THE DEPARTMENT, OR AT LEAST THE, THE WATER UTILITY AS FAR AS INFORMING A LOT OF THE MAJOR, UM, INFRASTRUCTURE AND INVESTMENT, UH, DECISIONS THAT, UH, THE DEPARTMENT WILL FACE GOING FORWARD.

AND SO THIS REALLY LAYS THE FOUNDATION FOR HOW STAFF GOES ABOUT PLANNING AND, UH, LEADING TO THE, THE RECOMMENDATIONS THAT COME BEFORE THE BOARD FOR, FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS.

UM, SO TODAY, UH, IS THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST.

THAT'S THE, THE PORTION OF THE WORK THAT HAS BEEN COMPLETED UNDER THIS WATER RESOURCES PLAN THUS FAR.

UH, TODAY, I JUST WANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WE HAVE PER SNY ST.

CHARLES HERE FROM WOODARD AND KERN, OUR CONSULTANT, UH, PER SNY AND HER TEAM OF TECHNICAL, YOU KNOW, GENIUSES HAVE, HAVE REALLY DONE, UH, THE, THE LEGWORK AS FAR AS A LOT OF THE HEAVY ANALYSIS THAT GOES INTO ALL OF THESE SLIDES.

THERE'S A LOT OF TECHNICAL DATA AND INFORMATION.

I'M DO GOING TO DO MY BEST TO, TO WALK THROUGH IT AND EXPLAIN ALL THE WORK, UM, THAT'S GONE TO GRAPHS AND, AND A LOT OF THE, THE HARD WORK THAT'S GONE TO, YOU KNOW, A SINGLE SLIDE OR A SINGLE CHART HAS TAKEN, YOU KNOW, MONTHS AND MONTHS TO, TO REALLY, UM, DO THE ANALYSIS THAT LEADS TO A SINGLE CHART.

AND SO, SO I WANT TO UNS UNDERSCORE THE EFFORT THAT PERSE AND HER TEAM HAVE, UM, HELPED US WITH.

SO TODAY, I'LL, I'LL GIVE AN OVERVIEW OF THE WATER RESOURCES PLANNING PROCESS.

UH, I BELIEVE COMMISSIONER CORD IS THE ONLY ONE THAT'S, UH, AROUND FROM THE LAST TIME WE'VE GONE THROUGH THIS PROCESS BACK IN 2019.

UH, THE WATER RESOURCES PLAN IS A DOCUMENT OR AN, UH, UH, EFFORT THAT WE WANT TO UNDERTAKE EVERY FIVE YEARS.

ESSENTIALLY, AS TIME CHANGE, AS CONDITIONS CHANGE, WE WANT TO BE CONTINUALLY ASSESSING AND REASSESSING IF WE'RE STILL ON THE RIGHT PATH.

AND, UM, THAT, THAT WILL MAKE MORE SENSE AS I I GO THROUGH, UM, LATER IN THIS SLIDE, KIND OF THE PROCESS FOR WATER RESOURCES PLANNING.

UM, BUT AN OVERVIEW OF THE WATER RESOURCES PLANNING PROCESS IS WHERE I'LL START.

UH, I'LL, THEN WE CAN TALK ABOUT THE WATER DEMAND FORECAST, LOOKING TO THE FUTURE, WHAT OUR WATER DEMANDS LOOK LIKE, THAT'S A PORTION OF THE,

[00:25:01]

AND THEN THE WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT.

SO HOW RELIABLE DO OUR WATER SUPPLIES LOOK, UH, GOING TO THE FUTURE? AND THEN I'LL TALK ABOUT THE NEXT STEPS, UH, BECAUSE THIS IS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF POTENTIALLY, UH, TWO OR, OR EVEN THREE, UM, PRESENTATIONS THAT'LL BE GIVEN TO THE BOARD, LEADING TO THE ULTIMATE, UH, UH, WATER RESOURCES PLAN.

UH, AND SO, UH, TODAY IS FOUNDATIONAL IN UNDERSTANDING, UH, SETTING, SETTING THE TABLE FOR UNDERSTANDING THE NEED AND WHAT IS OUR NEED FOR DIFFERENT WATER SUPPLIES, AND THEN EVENTUALLY, WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENT OPTIONS WE HAVE AVAILABLE, UM, TO, UH, MOVE FORWARD WITH.

SO AN OVERVIEW OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING.

OH, AND I GUESS BEFORE I START TODAY, WAS INTENDED TO BE A SEMI, UH, WORKSHOP.

AND SO PLEASE FEEL FREE TO, UH, JUMP IN AT ANY TIME WITH QUESTIONS.

UH, DON'T, DON'T FEEL LIKE YOU HAVE TO HOLD THEM TO THE END.

UH, THIS IS GONNA BE QUITE A, A LONG PRESENTATION, SO, UH, DEFINITELY BY ALL MEANS, UH, ASK QUESTIONS AS WE GO ALONG.

SO, STARTING WITH, UH, WATER DEMAND FORECASTING, IF YOU LOOK AT THIS SLIDE, UH, ON THE, THE Y AXIS YOU HAVE HOW MUCH WATER DEMAND AN ACRE FEET, UH, WE'VE HAD IN LONG BEACH, HISTORICALLY, STARTING FROM 1945 ON THE AXIS, AND THEN NOW WE'RE FORECASTING OUT TO 2050.

AND SO IF YOU LOOK AT PRE 1989, BASICALLY STARTING AFTER WORLD WAR II AND THE DEVELOPMENT THAT HAPPENED IN LONG BEACH, THE, THE WATER DEMAND, UH, INCREASED CONTINUOUSLY INCREASED YEAR AFTER YEAR, UM, UP UNTIL 1989.

BUT AT THIS POINT, IF YOU LOOK AND TOOK A LINEAR TREND AND FORECASTED TO WHERE WE ARE TODAY, WE'D BE AT APPROXIMATELY 120,000 ACRE FEET OF, OF WATER DEMAND.

IF YOU WERE TO, YOU KNOW, SIMPLE, UH, LINEAR TREND THAT, THAT HISTORICAL WATER DEMAND, STARTING IN 1987, UH, THROUGH 1992, UH, THERE WAS A, A, A DROUGHT, A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT.

AND SO, UH, WHAT HAPPENED WAS WATER DEMAND STARTED TRENDING DOWNWARDS.

AND SO, STARTING FROM THAT LAST, FROM THAT DROUGHT IN THE NINETIES, UH, TILL CURRENT, WE'VE HAD SEVERAL CONTINUOUS DROUGHTS AND THE REALIZATION THAT AS A STATE AND AS A REGION, UH, THE POPULATION AND BUSINESSES AND ECONOMY HAS GROWN TO SUCH, WHERE WE CAN'T JUST CONTINUALLY GROW OUR WATER DEMANDS.

AND SO EVERY SUBSEQUENT DROUGHT HAS BEEN AN EFFORT TO BRING DOWN OUR WATER USE, UH, NOT JUST IN LONG BEACH, BUT ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL AS, YOU KNOW, ALL OF, UH, SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

AND SO FROM 1990 ONWARD, WE HAVE A DOWNWARD TREND.

AND IF YOU WERE TO, UH, ASSUME THAT THAT DOWNWARD TREND WOULD CONTINUE, YOU'D LOOK OUT TO 2050 AND ASSUME THAT OUR WATER USE WOULD BE DOWN IN THE 20 SOMETHING THOUSAND ACRE FEET RANGE, WHICH IS LOWER THAN WE HAD BACK IN 1945.

SO IF YOU, HISTORICALLY, UM, THAT'S HOW, UH, WATER DEMAND FORECASTS WERE, WERE DONE, UH, JUST A SIMPLE LINEAR TREND.

AND HAD WE GONE WITHIN PRE 1989 TREND AND BUILT ALL OUR INFRASTRUCTURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT MUCH GROWTH, WE WOULD BE, UM, UH, SEVERELY OVERINVESTED IN OUR INFRASTRUCTURE AND OUR SYSTEM.

AND, AND SO YOU DON'T WANT THAT.

AND ON THE OTHER HAND, IF WE, UH, ASSUME THE CONTINUOUS DOWNWARD TREND, WELL THAT COULD MEAN, YOU KNOW, VERY DIFFERENT, UH, OUTCOME AND, AND DIFFERENT DECISIONS THAT WE HAVE TO MAKE AND DIFFERENT, UH, IMPACTS TO OUR, OUR FUTURE RATES.

AS YOU KNOW, THE BASE OF WATER SALES DECLINES, RIGHT? SO, UH, AS WE'VE, UH, EVOLVED THE, THE WORLD OF, UH, WATER DEMAND FORECASTING, UH, WE HAVE TRIED TO GET A LITTLE BIT MORE SOPHISTICATED THAN A SIMPLE STRAIGHT LINE TREND.

AND SO, UH, COMMISSIONER CORD, YOU MENTIONED EARLIER, UH, PLAN FOR THE WORST, BUT HOPE FOR THE BEST WAS, UM, KIND OF THE, THE, THE MANTRA AS FAR AS WHAT, WHAT, UH, PLANNING USED TO BE.

AND SO YOU'D, YOU'D PLAN HOPING, UH, TO, TO HAVE DEMAND, HIGH DEMAND, OR IN, IN THIS CASE, UH, NOT TOO LOW OF DEMAND.

UH, BUT WE CAN, I THINK WE CAN DO BETTER THAN THAT WITH OUR CURRENT PROCESS.

SO, NEW FORECAST, THAT'S A TEASER, UH, WON'T GET TO THAT JUST YET, BUT THE NEW FORECAST WILL BE NEITHER OF THOSE TWO.

SO THAT'S THE SPOILER ALERT THAT, UH, IT WON'T BE THE HIGH TREND OR THE LOW TREND.

SO, SCENARIOS AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT, THIS IS, UH, IN PLANNING, UH, WE'RE DOING IN THIS WATER RESOURCE PLAN WAS CALLED SCENARIO PLANNING.

AND SO NOBODY HAS A PERFECT CRYSTAL BALL.

WE DON'T KNOW WHAT EXACTLY WHAT THE FUTURE IS GONNA HOLD.

SO IF YOU SEE IN THE PICTURE, THE, THE, YOU KNOW, UH, THE, THE CHARACTER THERE IS LOOKING THROUGH THE TELESCOPE AT MULTIPLE POTENTIAL FUTURE OUTCOMES ON THE TOP WHITE LINE, YOU MIGHT HAVE A, AN OUTCOME WHERE, YOU KNOW, POPULATION GROWTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE IS, IS MUCH MORE DRASTIC THAN WE ANTICIPATED AND WILL HAVE REALLY, REALLY HIGH DEMAND.

OR YOU MIGHT HAVE THAT, THAT LOW GREEN LINE WHERE, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE POPULATION DECREASE AND, UM, YOU KNOW, SOMEHOW A LOT MORE RAINFALL AND WATER SUPPLY THAN ANTICIPATED.

AND SO ALL THESE DIFFERENT POTENTIAL FUTURES ARE POSSIBLE.

AND THROUGH THIS WATER RESOURCES PLANNING PROCESS, WHAT WE'VE TRIED TO DO IS NARROW DOWN TO THE, ESSENTIALLY THE PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES.

SO ANYTHING GOOD COULD POTENTIALLY HAPPEN,

[00:30:01]

THEN YOU HAVE A, A TERM WHEN IT'S CALLED ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT, YOU MIGHT HAVE HEARD, UH, BEFORE, BUT ALL OF THOSE DIFFERENT, UH, DIFFERENT POTENTIAL FUTURES ARE POSSIBLE.

AND SO HOW DO YOU COME UP WITH A, A SINGLE PLAN THAT COVERS ALL THOSE DIFFERENT POTENTIAL FUTURES? WELL, YOU HAVE TO HAVE A PLAN THAT'S ADAPTIVE, MEANING YOU EVALUATE AND REEVALUATE, AS WAS MENTIONED EARLIER, ON A CONTINUOUS BASIS, WHICH POTENTIAL FUTURE YOU'RE ON.

YOU'RE TRYING TO, UH, AS THE, THE, UH, THE IMAGE THERE OF THE, THE GPS RECALCULATING, AS YOU FIGURE OUT WHAT NEW ROAD YOU'RE ON, YOU HAVE TO FIND A NEW PATH TO THE, THE, THE FUTURE OUTCOME THAT YOU DESIRE, RIGHT? AND SO DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU, YOU ARE EVERY 5, 10, 15 YEARS, YOU MIGHT TAKE A DIFFERENT PATH.

UM, AND, AND YOU HAVE TO KIND OF MAP OUT DIFFERENT WAYS TO GET TO THE SAME END DESTINATION.

AND SO IN THE, THE PREVIOUS, UM, BOARD MEETING, WE HAD A, OR COMMITTEE MEETING, INFRASTRUCTURE MEETING WHERE WE'RE JUST, WE'RE DISCUSSING THE GROUNDWATER RESILIENCE PROGRAM, THERE WAS THIS TOPIC OF, OR CONCEPT OF LOWER OR NO, UH, POINT OF NO RETURN, SORRY, THE POINT OF NO RETURN SOUNDS SCARY.

UM, BUT THROUGH THIS PLANNING PROCESS, WHAT WE HOPE TO DEVELOP OR WILL DEVELOP IS THIS CONCEPT OF LOW OR NO REGRETS DECISIONS.

MEANING, EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE A HUGE DOLLAR AMOUNT THAT WE'RE COMMITTING TO AT A, AFTER A CERTAIN POINT, WATER RESOURCES PLAN WILL HELP US TO, TO, TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT THAT INVESTMENT WILL HAVE ESSENTIALLY A LOW OR NO RISK OF, UH, UNDERTAKING.

MEANING, YOU KNOW, IF WE'RE LOOKING AT A GROUNDWATER RESILIENCE PROGRAM THAT'S SEVERAL HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS DOLLARS OF DOLLARS, WELL, WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE TO NOT DOING THAT? WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE TO OUR WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY? WHAT IS THE COST OF CONTINUING TO TAKE IMPORTED WATER, RIGHT? AND SO, HOPEFULLY THROUGH THAT ANALYSIS, WHAT WE'LL SEE IS, UH, UH, ONE OR TWO OR THREE OR MULTIPLE LOWER OR NO REGRETS DECISIONS.

AND SO AS THOSE DECISIONS COME BEFORE THE BOARD, IT MAKES THOSE DECISIONS, UH, EASIER TO, TO MAKE.

UM, AND SO, UH, RATHER THAN PLANNING FOR THE WORST AND HOPING FOR THE BEST, NOW THE APPROACH IS PLANNING FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS.

AND WE STILL WANT TO HOPE FOR THE BEST, BUT AT LEAST WE'LL BE PREPARED IF THE WORST DOES HAPPEN.

SO, AS FAR AS THE STEPS IN, IN THE WATER RESOURCES PLAN, UH, FIRST WE WILL TAKE A WATER DEMAND FORECAST.

WE FIRST HAVE TO KNOW WHAT THE POTENTIAL FUTURE, UH, NEEDS FOR WATER IN OUR CITY ARE.

UH, THEN THE NEXT STEP IS TO LOOK AT OUR, OUR EXISTING WATER SUPPLIES AND SEE HOW RELIABLE THOSE ARE GOING TO BE GOING OUT INTO THE FUTURE.

UH, THOSE ARE THE TWO STEPS THAT WE'VE COMPLETED AND WE'LL BE GOING THROUGH IN DETAIL TODAY.

UM, AND IN THE FUTURE, SUBSEQUENT, UH, WORKSHOPS FOR THE BOARD, WE'LL BE LOOKING AT ALL OF THE DIFFERENT WATER SUPPLIES AVAILABLE TO LONG BEACH.

WE'RE PRETTY FORTUNATE HERE GEOGRAPHICALLY, AND, AND, YOU KNOW, WITH OUR, UM, DIFFERENT REGIONAL PARTNERS, WE HAVE A LOT OF DIFFERENT WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS AVAILABLE TO US.

AND THEN FINALLY, UH, LOOKING AT ALL THE DIFFERENT OPTIONS, WE WILL DEVELOP DIFFERENT WATER SUPPLY PORTFOLIOS AND, UH, DIFFERENT IMPLEMENTATION PATHWAYS.

UH, SO SEQUENCES, HOW DO WE SEQUENCE OUR DECISIONS, SEQUENCE OUR, UH, INVESTMENTS AND, AND OUR BUDGET TO REACH THAT, UH, FUTURE DESIRED OUTCOME.

SO DIVING INTO THE DEMAND FORECAST.

SO WHEN WE START LOOKING AT HOW TO, TO, UM, FORECAST THE DEMAND, AGAIN, IN THE PAST, IT WAS A SIMPLER, SIMPLE HISTORICAL LINEAR TREND.

WELL, NOW HOW WE'RE DOING IT IS WE'RE TAKING A DETAILED LOOK AT POPULATION FORECASTING, HOUSING FORECASTING, EMPLOYMENT FORECASTING, AND CONSERVATION FORECASTING.

AND SO, SO THOSE ARE THE KEY DRIVING FACTORS THAT WE'VE INCORPORATED TO TRY TO ASSESS WHERE WE WILL BE, UH, WATER DEMAND WISE GOING OUT INTO THE FUTURE.

AND SO THIS, THIS GRAPH HERE IS AN EXAMPLE OF HOW WE'RE INCORPORATING, UH, ONE OF THOSE FACTORS.

SO THIS IS, UH, THIS IS THE HOUSING UNITS.

UM, AND SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE, THE, ON THE, UM, UH, LE THE Y AXIS IS THE NUMBER OF OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS.

ON THE Y AXIS IS ON THE X AXIS IS THE, THE YEARS.

AND THE BLACK LINE IS, UH, HISTORICALLY HOW MANY HOUSING UNITS HAVE BEEN IN LONG BEACH.

NOW WE'RE LOOKING, UH, TO USE ESSENTIALLY, UH, MULTIPLE SCENARIOS.

THAT SCENARIO PLANNING APPROACH IS, THERE'S A, A FORECAST FROM SCAG, THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS.

THEY'RE THE, UM, YOU KNOW, POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS, FORECASTING EXPERTS, UH, AND THEY'VE FORECASTED THIS RED LINE, A TREND, UH, A RED LINE OF WHERE THEY ANTICIPATE HOUSING WILL BE IN LONG BEACH GOING OUT INTO THE FUTURE.

ON THE OTHER HAND, IF WE TAKE A, A HISTORICAL, UM, THE, THE LINEAR TREND IS MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT SCAG IS ANTICIPATING.

AND ACTUALLY, THE LAST TIME WE DID OUR WATER RESOURCES PLAN, WE, UH, ESSENTIALLY

[00:35:01]

AND SO WE WERE USING THE UPPER BOUND, UH, IN THIS, UH, CASE, THIS ONE VARIABLE OF HIGH, UH, GROWTH OF USING THE SCAG ESTIMATE.

AND WE'RE USING THIS LOW LINEAR TREND AS KIND OF A LOWER BOUND FOR THAT, THAT, UH, LOWER POTENTIAL FUTURE.

AND SO THIS IS JUST ONE OF THE FACTORS, BUT FOR EACH OF THOSE FACTORS LISTED, HOUSING, EMPLOYMENT, CONSERVATION, WE ESSENTIALLY HAVE UPPER AND LOWER BOUNDS THAT WE'RE CONSIDERING.

SO WE PUT ALL THOSE DIFFERENT POSSIBILITIES INTO, UH, AN ANALYSIS, AND WE APPLY THAT, APPLY THOSE FACTORS TO EACH OF THE DIFFERENT, UH, WATER USE SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE.

AND SO, FURTHER LEVEL OF DETAIL AS FAR AS, OKAY, FOR, FOR HOUSING, WE'RE LOOKING AT MULTI-FAMILY VERSUS SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING.

THE EXPECTATIONS OF DIFFERENT UNITS IN EACH OF THOSE, UH, MULTI-FAMILY USES WATER DIFFERENTLY THAN SINGLE FAMILY.

UH, THEY CONSERVE, THEY'RE ABLE TO CONSERVE DIFFERENTLY, ET CETERA.

AND SO WE APPLY THOSE FACTORS HIGH AND LOW TO EACH OF THESE CUSTOMER TYPES.

AND FOR EACH OF THESE CUSTOMER TYPES, UH, AND, AND HOW, UM, WE'VE SEEN THEIR WATER USE WILL DEVELOP, OR WATER AND CURRENT HAS DEVELOPED A STATISTICAL MODEL.

AND SO THEY, THEY LOOK AT THE HISTORICAL WATER USE.

UM, AND SO BLUE, THE BLUE SOLID LINE IS THE HISTORICAL, AND THEN THEY BUILD THIS MODEL USING THE VARIABLES THAT I MENTIONED EARLIER.

AND THEY, THEY USE THOSE MODELS TO, UH, DETERMINE HOW MUCH EACH OF THOSE VARIABLES AFFECTS WATER USE.

AND WHAT YOU'LL SEE HERE IS THAT DOTTED BROWN LINE IS AFTER THEY'VE BASICALLY, YOU KNOW, TAKEN OUT THE ACTUAL INFORMATION AND JUST PLUGGED IN THE VARIABLES, UM, NOW THEY'RE ABLE TO ESSENTIALLY SIMULATE, UH, UM, BASED ON THOSE VARIABLES, WHAT THE, THE ANTICIPATED WATER USE WOULD BE GIVEN THOSE VARIABLES.

AND SO NOW THROUGH 2025, YOU'LL SEE A VERY, YOU KNOW, UM, CLOSE ALIGNMENT BETWEEN THE HISTORICAL ACTUAL WATER USE AND WHAT THE MODEL IS ABLE TO PREDICT.

SO THAT GIVES US CONFIDENCE THAT, OKAY, NOW WE CAN PLUG IN, UM, THE EARLIER, UH, ASSUMPTIONS OF WHAT HOUSING AND POPULATION ARE GOING TO DO.

AND NOW WE CAN PUT THAT INTO THE MODEL AND FORECAST WHAT DEMAND IN EACH OF THESE WATER USE SECTORS IS GOING TO BE.

SO AN ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF DETAIL IN THE FORECASTING IS, UH, WE'VE BROKEN UP, OH, YES, QUICK, WAS THAT LAST SLIDE, LIKE REAL TIME OR WAS THAT PROJECTED? OH, SO, SO THIS IS THROUGH 2025, RIGHT? SO THIS IS TO BUILD THE MODEL.

AND SO THEN WE TAKE, WE, WE TAKE THE MODEL AND THE, THE, THE VARIABLES ESSENTIALLY.

AND THEN WE PLUG IN WHAT WE ASSUME THE FUTURE WILL BE TO BUILD WHAT THE FUTURE DEMAND LOOKS LIKE.

AND, AND YEAH, THAT'S NOT ON THIS SLIDE, THIS IS JUST THE MODEL.

BUT, UM, WE COULD HAVE EXTENDED THIS OUT TO SHOW YOU WHAT THE INDIVIDUAL, UH, FORECAST FOR SINGLE FAMILY, FOR INSTANCE, WOULD BE.

SO, SO GO, GO BACK FOR A SECOND.

SO THE BLACK LINE, IF YOU LOOK AT THE DATES ON THE BOTTOM, THE BLACK LINE IS HISTORICAL, 2005 TO 2025.

SO GO TO THE NEXT SLIDE.

SO THEN WE ASK THE CONSULTANT WITH THE INFORMATION THAT WE HAVE OF ACTUAL NUMBERS FOR 2014 TO 2024, THOSE ACTUAL NUMBERS ARE IN BLUE.

AND SO THEN THE COMPUTER MODEL PUTS OUT A RESPONSE, AND THE RESPONSE MODELS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT THE ACTUAL IS.

NOW THE CHALLENGE IS TO TAKE THE MODEL AND SAY, OKAY, SO NOW WE'RE GONNA GIVE YOU HYPOTHETICAL NUMBERS FOR THE FUTURE.

AND BECAUSE YOU WERE SO ACCURATE IN 2014 THROUGH 2024, WE'RE GONNA HAVE A CERTAIN LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE GOING FORWARD, RIGHT? THANKS.

RIGHT? YEP.

AND SO IT'S, IT'S MULTI-VARIABLE, RIGHT? AND SO ON THIS SLIDE, IT'S, IT'S NOT JUST, YOU KNOW, POPULATION, IT'S NOT JUST HOUSING OR EMPLOYMENT, IT'S ALL THESE FACTORS COMBINED INTO THE MODEL TO TO PREDICT, UM, THAT, THAT, UH, DOTTED BROWN LINE ESSENTIALLY.

AND, AND TO CLARIFY FURTHER ON THIS SLIDE, EVERY SINGLE CUSTOMER TYPE HAS A DEMAND PROFILE FROM 2014 TO 2024.

AND THE MODEL SIMULATES AGAINST THOSE TYPES AND REPLICATES TO THE DEGREE THAT INFORMATION.

AND THEN IF YOU HAVE THE CONFIDENCE THAT FOR EVERY ONE OF THOSE TYPES, IT REPLICATES THE INFORMATION CORRECTLY AND GOING FORWARD, NOW YOU CAN BRING ALL OF THEM TOGETHER AND GET INTO, HAVE THEM ALL TOGETHER, CORRECT? YEP.

SO THIS IS JUST AN EXAMPLE FOR SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL, BUT WE'VE CREATED A SIMILAR MODEL FORECAST OR MULTIFAMILY, COMMERCIAL, INDUSTRIAL, AND IRRIGATION AS WELL, THAT THOSE ARE DIFFERENT CUSTOMER TYPES.

UM, AND SO, YOU KNOW, WE FURTHER DIFFERENTIATE THE MODEL, UH, OR, OR SEGMENT THE MODEL BY LOOKING AT OUR DIFFERENT DISTRIBUTION ZONES.

AND SO, JUST AS A REMINDER, WE HAVE TWO ESSENTIALLY, UH, DISTRIBUTION ZONES IN OUR SYSTEM.

WE HAVE THE, UH, BLENDED ZONE, AND IN THE BLENDED ZONE IS WHERE WE'RE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR GROUNDWATER.

AND THEN ANYTHING THAT, UH, CAN'T BE SUPPLIED BY GROUNDWATER IN THIS BLENDED ZONE

[00:40:01]

UH, WE, WE DO OUR BEST TO, TO USE AS MUCH GROUNDWATER AS POSSIBLE IN, IN THE MAJORITY OF OUR CITY.

WE THEN, WE HAVE, UM, WHAT'S CALLED THE MWD ZONE, OR THE JWJ STANDING FOR J WILL JOHNSON RESERVOIR ZONE, UH, BECAUSE THIS, THIS ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CITY IS FED BY THE, THE RESERVOIR, UM, ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CITY.

AND THIS IS PURELY METROPOLITAN WATER, WHICH IS WHY IT'S CALLED, UM, THE MWD ZONE.

WE DON'T HAVE THE ABILITY TO PUSH WATER ESSENTIALLY, UM, INTO THE, THE WESTERN PART PORTION OF THE CITY.

AND SO IT'S IMPORTANT FOR US WHEN WE'RE FORECASTING OUR FUTURE DEMANDS, ESPECIALLY AS, UM, YOU KNOW, I'LL TAKE YOU THROUGH THE SUBSEQUENT SLIDES ON, UH, OUR WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY.

A LOT OF THE WATER SUPPLY CONCERNS NOW ARE SURROUNDING IMPORTED WATER.

AND SO WE WILL HAVE A DIFFERENT EXPOSURE TO, UH, IMPORTED WATER RISK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CITY THAN WE WOULD IN THE, THE RESTAURANT OF THE BLENDED ZONE IN THE CITY.

SO THE DEMAND FORECAST SEPARATES OUT OUR FUTURE DEMAND FORECAST FOR THESE TWO DIFFERENT ZONES.

SO BACK TO THIS SLIDE THAT I SHOWED EARLIER.

THERE'S AN UPWARD TREND AND DOWNWARD TREND, AND I, YOU KNOW, UH, RUINED THE BIG REVEAL BY TELLING YOU IT'D BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN, BUT WE ARE ANYWAY, SO THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY DOWN.

UM, SO ON, ON, UM, ON, ON THIS SCALE OF, OF THE, UH, THE Y AXIS, IT'S REALLY HARD TO TO TELL, YOU KNOW, HOW BIG OF A, A DIFFERENCE THIS IS.

BUT, YOU KNOW, IT'S QUITE SIGNIFICANT, AS YOU KNOW, IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF OUR HISTORICAL DEMAND, IT SEEMS LIKE A VERY SMALL VARIATION, BUT IT'S, IT'S ACTUALLY, UH, PRETTY IMPORTANT, UM, AS FAR AS THE DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN THE TOP AND THE SMALL.

AND I'LL, I'LL ZOOM IN ON THAT LATER.

BUT, UH, SO, SO HERE WE, WE WANT US TO, TO CAVEAT THIS, YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORICAL TREND AND YOU KNOW, IF WE WENT BY THOSE MODELS, THEY WOULD BE WRONG.

UH, THERE'S A FAMOUS SAYING THAT'S ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, BUT SOME ARE USEFUL.

WELL, WE DON'T WANT TO SAY THAT THIS IS A PERFECT CRYSTAL BALL.

UH, YOU KNOW, IF, IF FIVE YEARS FROM NOW WE'RE NOT PERFECTLY ON THAT LINE, I DON'T WANT YOU GUYS TO THINK THAT ALL THIS EFFORT WAS FOR NOTHING.

ESSENTIALLY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORICAL TREND, THERE ARE SOME YEARS WHERE YOU'RE ABOVE AND ABOVE THE LINE SOME YEARS WHERE YOU'RE BELOW THE LINE.

BUT ON AVERAGE, WE WANNA KNOW WHAT IS, WHAT IS THE LIKELY FUTURE TRAJECTORY THAT WE'RE ON, RIGHT? IT'S NOT NECESSARILY TO SAY IN ANY SINGLE GIVEN YEAR THAT IT'S GONNA BE EXACTLY ON THAT LINE.

'CAUSE YOU HAVE REALLY WET YEARS, YOU HAVE REALLY DRY YEARS, YOU HAVE CONSECUTIVE WET YEARS OR CONSECUTIVE DRY YEARS THAT REALLY COULD AFFECT YOUR DEMAND.

BUT IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF ALL THE DIFFERENT VARIABLES THAT WE'RE FACING, WE WANNA UNDERSTAND WHAT'S THE, WHAT'S THE CORRECT MOST LIKELY TRAJECTORY THAT WE'RE ON AND THAT WE SHOULD PLAN TOWARDS.

YES, ANSEL, ONE OF THE THINGS ABOUT THIS ASPECT OF RESOURCE PLANNING AND THE UTILITIES LIFE IN DEALING WITH THINGS IS THAT MANY TIMES, WHETHER YOU LOOK AT THE UPWARD TREND OR THE DOWNWARD TREND, WE ALWAYS HAVE THIS CONCEPT OF AVERAGE.

THE THING ABOUT US IN THE UTILITY INDUSTRY IS THAT AVERAGE IS MATH.

IT'S SIMPLY A MATH NUMBER.

IT'S NOT REALLY WHAT'S HAPPENING.

WHAT'S HAPPENING IS DEAN POINTED OUT TO YOU, WHETHER IT'S UP OR DOWN, THERE'S A HUGE VARIABILITY.

AND SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE DOWN, AND YOU LOOK AT 1990 GOING FORWARD, AND YOU SEE THE DOTTED LINE IS THE AVERAGE, AND IN 1990 OR JUST AFTER, RIGHT? WHERE THE O ON POST 1990 IS, YOU SEE THE BIG DIP.

AND IF YOU TOOK THOSE NUMBERS AND YOU TOOK WHAT THE AVERAGE CALCULATION WAS, THANK YOU, DEAN.

TAKE THE AVERAGE CALCULATION.

YOU SEE THE YEAR THAT THE AVERAGE OCCURS, WHEREAS GO TO YOUR RIGHT UHHUH, WELL, ALL THE WAY TO 2010.

2010 IS THE AVERAGE NUMBER FOR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED IN 1990 IN TERMS OF RESOURCE PLANNING.

WHEN THE NUMBERS ACTUALLY VARY FROM THE AVERAGE, A DIP LIKE THAT CAN CAUSE YOU TO SAY, WE'RE IN CRISIS MODE, THE FUTURE IS HERE, AND THINGS ARE HAPPENING MUCH FASTER, AND WE NEED TO WORRY AND WE NEED TO ACT.

TAKE THE OPPOSITE, GO TO 2007, 2017, AND ALL OF A SUDDEN THE NUMBERS ARE UP.

NOW YOU LOOK AT WHERE THE AVERAGE WAS FOR THE NUMBER IN 2007, AND YOU HAVE TO GO BACK, DEAN, GO BACK TO 1995 OR SOMETHING.

1995, GO TO 1995, .

THERE YOU GO, RIGHT? IS 2005, 2010, THE NUMBERS ARE UP.

THEY ACTUALLY GO BACK TO 1995, AND THERE'S A BELIEF THAT WE WERE WRONG.

ACTUALLY, WE SHOULD BE THINKING THAT NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PAST, BECAUSE WE'RE VALIDATING WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PAST IN TERMS OF RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND IN TERMS OF A UTILITY MANAGING ITS INVESTMENTS AND SO FORTH.

WE ALWAYS HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF TRYING TO DO THE LONG RANGE PLANNING.

YOU UNDERSTAND THE VALUE OF THE INVESTMENTS WE MAKE.

IF WE'RE NOT CAREFUL ENOUGH AND WE DON'T DO LONG RANGE PLANNING, WE CAN FIND OURSELVES IN THAT FAULTY THINKING, THE FUTURE IS UPON US

[00:45:01]

OR THESE WERE THE WRONG INVESTMENTS BECAUSE WE'VE BEEN VALIDATED THAT THINGS ARE JUST LIKE THEY WERE 10 YEARS AGO, AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED.

THANKS, DEAN.

KEEP, KEEP GOING.

THANK YOU.

OKAY, SO, SO NOW TO ZOOM IN ON THE HIGH AND LOW.